Has the time come to stop banking on the Modi wave? Is it waxing or waning? Is there no Kejri wave? These are some questions that come to mind as Delhi is preparing to elect its legislative assembly on February 7.

The election is fought around two leaders: Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

Both Modi and Kejri are charismatic personalities — one consorting with the affluent and affordable, other connecting with downtrodden and marginalized, one an expert in secret wheeling and dealing, other in transparency in money matters and dealing with marginalized, both hard working. Whom will you choose for Delhi?

Is it going to be back to square one for Kejriwal in Delhi after one year? At that time all said, it was going to be an uphill task, a David versus Goliath, for him against the then formidable CM Sheila Dikshit of the Congress but the unexpected happened. He defeated Dikshit and came second with 28 seats against 32 of the BJP, thanks to the poor and rickshaw pullers he befriended.

Now the same Kejriwal, humbled, diminished in stature and less popular because of a total wipe out in Delhi and in all state elections except the accidental gain of four seats in Punjab in the last Lok Saba elections, what could be his prospects for a better performance to prove poll predictors of hung assembly wrong?

This time also, Delhi election was kicked off projecting the Modi face alone as the sure-win strategy, as it was in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir state elections without projecting a chief ministerial candidate. The assumption still is Modi image is synonymous with victory, although the crowd at the kick off at Ram Leela ground filled only one-third of the space and so was disappointing to start with. In the first three states BJP succeeded to form a government in spite of falling short of the projected target. In Jammu and Kashmir, BJP could come only second to PDP. More disappointing is that it has not succeeded to form a government even now in JK after prolonged negotiations with various parties for more than two weeks.

BJP caught in conflict?

In Delhi, Kejriwal has already charged the BJP’s Delhi unit president Satish Upadhay’s company with “conflict of interest” in providing faulty meters to Delhi in 2012, which militates against projecting him as a credible leader. Caught in such a bind Modi Sarkar was in frantic search for a cleaner chief minister candidate to avoid causing damage to the much advertised Modi wave and to deflect any blame from Modi’s fair image. It was in this context that Kiran Bedi was inducted into BJP and talks about projecting her as the CM candidate against Kejriwal was mooted.

Bedi’s induction seems to have triggered another former prominent AAP associate and Journalist Shazia Ilmi also to join BJP the very following day. Reportedly some five AAP stalwarts have already Joined BJP making people wonder if AAP is becoming a sinking ship.

Simultaneously it was also pointed out that the new well known entrants, Bedi and Ilmi were once with Kejriwal as strong critics of Modi and BJP and therefore could be called turn-coats or opportunists.

“Hypocrisy, thy name is BJP,” Ilmi had tweeted earlier and Bedi: “One day, Namo (Narendra Modi) will have to respond with clarity about riot massacre,” in Gujarat. Besides she was a strong critic of Kejriwal for floating AAP as she was totally against anyone, herself or Kejriwal entering politics instead of staying with Anna Hazare to fight corruption.

In addition Anna Hazare is reportedly very hurt by Bedi’s joining BJP without consulting him. When Kejriwal left it was done amicably after due discussion even when both Hazare and Bedi stoutly opposed the plan of floating a political party. His was a cordial parting of ways for the sake of conviction and he kept good relations with Anna, often asking for his advice and blessings on his new venture.

That has not happened in the case of Bedi when she joined BJP. To make up with her mentor Anna, Bedi reportedly called up Hazare several times, but he refused to take up the phone always. Simultaneously old timers in Delhi have been hurt to the quick and were up in rebellion on TV against rubbishing their long years of hard work in the party and projecting Bedi, an outsider just brought in as CM face, but already behaving like an approved CM even before confirmation. They would accept her only “grudgingly,” they said on TV, even if the high command were to approve her nomination.

No men of metal in Delhi BJP?

So critics allege these defectors brought in are just fair weather friends and will stay only as long as the going is good for them. For BJP it is awkward to admit publically that it lacks men of metal in the capital for a credible CM post. This made the BJP parivar terribly embarrassed and very jittery. All such uncertainties finally came to an end at 11 pm on Jan.19 when Amit Shah formally announced Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate in Delhi and AAP reacted calling her a “scapegoat.”

So the duel is between two Anna Hazare devotees.

This is the background against which the much delayed Delhi election is taking place. But who is to be faulted for delaying this election for so long? The “anarchist Kejriwal” who quit on the 49th day, allegedly “leaping for the moon of India’s PM,” not realizing that a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, can be blamed, but only partially. Even otherwise Kejriwal could have done only mighty little in Delhi with the support of a most undependable Congress, always throwing in a spanner in the works or going back on given promise and worst of all without a “Jan Lokpal” duly put in place. Kejri sacrificed his CM’s chair for the sake of “Jan Lokpal.” Now Bedi seems to be sacrificing Jan Lokpal for winning Delhi CM’s post.

And remember BJP never speaks of corruption or Jan Lokpal, essential to arrest corruption. All know where corruption is rampant, where crony capitalism is flourishing and in which all parties transparency in huge election fund collection and spending is zero.

Fanciful and eye-popping promises are easy to make to intoxicate a gullible public. For that you need only the gift of the gab like that of a rockstar which is Modi’s forte. That alone won’t produce results. What happened, for example, to the promise of bringing black money in hundred days and ushering in of Ache Din (good days) with price reduction of all commodity goods even after eight months in office? Performance alone is the touch stone, not promises galore. Money Wapsi is ending up in Ghar Wapsi and “make in India” has now ending in “Make in Belli” (four or five children) advocated from house tops by the loony fringe elements in BJP.

Kejri’s big mistake

Hindsight tells us, Kejri’s greatest mistake was to go in for an alliance with Congress that too egged on by BJP and his own fans. Instead he should have insisted on a re-election when even BJP the party with the greatest number refused to form the government, rather than clamoring for it after governor’s rule was imposed. It was obvious to everyone that the BJP had tried to cook up a majority through horse trading for one whole year. Only when they found, none of their tricks could work, they succumbed to the inevitable, to face the present unsure elections.

Both the irony and joke about the present election is that BJP band wagon is led by borrowed leaders or opportunists (Bedi and Ilmi) and borrowed ideas (broom to clean up) from enemy camp the AAP, while BJP revels in negative personal attacks, not in positive constructive programs to remedy problems plaguing Delhi.

The symbol of the broom, now used widely by BJP to clean India (Swachh Bharat), was first brought to limelight and popularized by AAP to rid India of political corruption. It is not an invention of BJP. Voters in Delhi should be well advised to choose the party with men, ideas and commitment to make their burden light.

As for Kejriwal, all is lost, if Delhi is lost. Was it for nothing that he won a Magsaysay Award in 2006? Sure enough, Kejri has his share of dictatorial streaks and undemocratic ways. But all that should fade into insignificance compared to the one-man show of a rock-star-Modi carried around on a podium head and shoulders above the reach of ordinary mortals, both at home and abroad by a worshipful Amen-shouting unthinking crowd, not a think-tank-community, both in government and outside. A crowd has many heads, not one mind, deliberated or deliberating.

Modi on the other hand is the expected and sought after of nations. He has proved it in India and in all the countries he visited, to be a man of vision and quick action unlike any other PM India has seen. He has also shown his superb ability to connect with the masses unlike the mum Manmohan-Sonia dispensation.

What is exceptional, he has proved himself to be a workaholic unparalleled and unseen among Indian politicians. He knows how to defend himself against all his enemies but strangely impotent before his home grown professed friends and well wishers. He should therefore pray constantly to Saraswati: “Protect me from my sworn friends; I shall take care of my enemies.” This is what his recent pronouncements on India’s poor and subsidies reveal. His first concern, he asserted was India’s poor and cutting all leakages in subsidy programs, not subsidies themselves.

Leave it to third eye?

But what is democracy without an opposition, strong or weak and getting things done through ordinances and not through a functioning parliament? So at least for the sake of curbing a brute majority government tempted to run riot rough shod, and to watch it from close quarters its wheeling and dealing an AAP government is not only advisable but necessary in Delhi.

Of course practical inward looking Delhi residents can’t be blamed if they think that sleeping with an all powerful BJP government at the capital would be the best bet for them to clamor and capture at one stroke all what they need and more like a pampered child.

A note from the AAP says: “For the first time in India’s history, a political party is fighting for clean governance, transparent funding and full accountability to the citizens. Aam Aadmi Party is the only party that believes in crowd sourcing its donation, comes under RTI, and does not have any corrupt, criminal candidates. With this strong foundation, AAP will build a government in Delhi which is efficient, progressive and accountable.” If true it deserves to be voted in.

But then there is also the “Third Eye” looking at things and watching through the eyes of the “Daridra Narayans,” the honest, hardworking, long suffering poor who really make or break elections in India, that vote bank which put Modi on a pedestal, driven to desperation by a corrupt to the core UPA and tempted beyond measure by the sweet promises of an “Ache Din” assured within hundred days, though no sign of its possible appearance anywhere on the horizon even after eight months in office.

In comparison, people in Delhi know that the 49 days of Kejriwal was far better in delivering his promises on current, water and reducing bribe taking in the capital etc. Besides a public grievance cell working round the clock with free telephone numbers to register complaints, had also instilled fear among erring public servants.

It may be their votes that are going to tip the scale in favor of Aam Aadmi, in spite of recent predictions that it is going to be a hung assembly once again. May be a presidential style public TV debate between Kejri and Bedi, before the whole nation just a week before voting, as suggested by one of the TV anchors could be the last ditch effort to help Delhi voters see more clearly and decide on the best bet for them.

(James Kottoor can be contacted at: jkottoor@asianetindi.com)