Don Aguia
Politics is one conversation that can make every head turn. Although for some it is just a conversation that takes place over a cup of steaming tea. You can miss sports, movie, the latest trends but you can’t turn your eyes away from diplomacy and country affairs. How is the current government performing and who will win the 2019 Lok Sabha election is always up for debate?
With 2019 election, as the most talked about elections, just around the corner, the country surely wants to know that who will take charge of the Indian democracy this time.
We start with understanding the 2014 Indian election, and breakdown of the US polls to how nationalism is the new wave and who will win the 2019 election. Here’s the current political scenario that might give you a new perspective.
Who would have thought a person’s mood could actually help you in curating relevant data? There is something called ‘Mood Analytics’ and data points are picked up from there. It is based on what people are talking across social media on all the platforms. This gives a typical idea of the mood that people are going through. Then there is intelligence information, and then geopolitics. What Saudi wants, what Pakistan wants. So if Pakistan wants Hilary and Saudi wants Hilary that means the nation is moving towards Trump. That is the geopolitical relationship.
Did you know the 2014 election actually focused more on the leader rather than the party? It was the time when seasoned voters took a backseat and the youth drove the results of the election.
In 2014, the youth was the undercurrent. People were sick of scams, it was everywhere. That time the component was not the seasoned voters like me or my grandfather. It was the youth and they wanted to change the future. This was capitalized by Narendra Modi as a nationalist movement. The last election was not about the party but the leader. Similarly, the 2019 election will also be about the leader. The seasoned people are talking about party politics while the youth is focused on the leader.
While for the majority the United States 2016 election was about Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton. Trump is rich. Hillary is not that rich, she wants to make money for herself. Trump on the other hand wants to make money for the United States. Nationalism was picking up, everyone was sick of jobs being taken by people from around the globe. So the mood set was Nationalism. Now, who is the one promoting Nationalism? It was not Trump, it was Hillary. And it was happening before primary people were talking on social media that the subject will be jobs. And then you see Trump, who is damn rich, he doesn’t need money but he is going to be a nationalist.
Haven’t we all been hearing that Nationalism is the new wave? But what is Nationalism?
To put it in simply it is a political system that believes one country is above other in the world.
Modi and Trump are always making the headline. They might look the same but the way they function makes the master difference.
Trump is an impulsive person, he makes certain comments openly that he shouldn’t. Modi is seasoned, he does the exact same thing but uses them as a weapon. Trump talks about banning media, while Modi welcomes everyone. He believes the more someone hits him, the more successful he gets. If you analyse the mood is nationalist. So, anybody who writes ugly things about the nationalist leader, the polarization happens.
Who will rule the world’s biggest democracy in the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha is the biggest question. While the country has their own biases, everyone wants to know who will be the next Prime Minister of India. Those who think BJP has lost its support and people are unhappy might want to hear this.
People who are making those comments are either middle class or short business class who were saving taxes. The tax component was their earning and now they have lost it.
Now here comes data science. We pick data from rural India. How many families have benefited from the cooking gas and electricity? How many have got access to toilets and how many kids are going to school now? When you study this you get a figure of fifty crore. Even in forty-fifty crore, being a conservative you divide it by two, it is twenty crore. You know in 2014, the elections were won by a small margin of 1.4 crore and here you have a larger swing. So the calculation says 2019 belongs to Modi. Time will say who will win the 2019 Election. A lot depends on the successful mobilisation of the entire middle class or short business class to exercise their franchise.
With just few months to go, it would be interesting to see if the cake still belongs to BJP or will the Congress get a taste of it. Will the country be governed by Modi or will we see another Gandhi taking its reign?