By Isaac Harold Gomes

Kolkata, Oct 1, 2023: By getting Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam (Women’s Reservation Bill, 2023) passed in both houses of parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is losing no opportunity to take credit for this. He even called himself “the chosen one for empowering and strengthening women” during his speech on the bill in the Lok Sabha.

The bill had been hanging fire for 27 years since the H. D. Deve Gowda-led government introduced it in Parliament in September 1996. But for all the drum-beating and felicitation by his party MPs (see photo), the bill will not be implemented before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Because the bill says that the census and thereafter Delimitation Exercise for rearrangement of seats will have to be done first. Only after that women’s reservation will come into effect – in 2029 at the earliest.

The Opposition has accused the Modi government of delaying its implementation by many years by tying it to the census and delimitation. Within the 33 percent quota in this bill, there will be sub-reservation for SCs, STs and Anglo-Indians.

The Women’s Reservation Bill was discussed in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha for two days. But why is the need for a census before implementing women’s reservation? Neither the Union Government nor any BJP leader in the central government could answer this question in Parliament. The reason is there is no real need for a census to be done before implementing Women’s Reservation Bill. There is no correlation whatsoever.

Another question that remains unanswered in the Bill is, which seats in Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha (State Assemblies) will be reserved for women and on what basis? What is that rule? There is no explanation in the bill, because no rules can be made for it.

The census was due to be held in 2021 after the last one in 2011. The Modi government claims this could not be done in 2021 due to Covid. Now it is heard that the census will take place only after the Lok Sabha polls.

According to the 2011 census, women accounted for 48.5 percent of the country’s population. Kerala has a slightly higher female population at over 52 percent. And in Haryana it is slightly less – at 46 percent.

In all the remaining states, the percentage of women ranges from 47-49. The proportion of women in Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha seats shows more or less the same pattern. This means Abhishek Banerjee’s Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha Constituency and Sukanta Majumder’s Balurghat Lok Sabha Constituency have almost the same percentage of women. Similarly, there is no big difference in the women population of Mamata Banerjee’s Bhawanipur and Subhendu Adhikari’s Nandigram Assembly constituencies.

For the same reason, it is difficult to lay down any definite rule as to which Lok Sabha seats will be reserved for women, in view of the reality that the percentage of female population is more or less the same in all the Lok Sabha constituencies, as was observed from the 2011 census. There is no evidence this picture will change in the census after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This is the reason the centre’s insistence on linking implementation of the Women’s Reservation Bill to a fresh census fails to hold water.

Census is required for reservation of seats for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). The seats are reserved for SCs and STs in Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha where they have higher population. The proportion of women in the population is more or less the same all over the country. So the only way to decide seats to be reserved for women is by a draw of lots.
According to the bill, one-third of the 543 Lok Sabha seats that is 181 seats will be reserved for women. This process of seat allocation will be valid for 15 years. In other words, women’s seat reservation will continue for three Lok Sabha elections.

All the seats will be reserved for women by in rotation. In that case, for the first time, 181 Lok Sabha seats to be reserved for women can easily be decided by lottery. Other seats will be reserved at the next election by the same process. Critics have pointed out that the rotation policy may reduce the incentive for an MLA/MP to work for her constituency as she may be ineligible to seek re-election from that constituency.

Had the concerns for women empowerment been genuine, the responsibility for draw of lots could have been safely entrusted to the Election Commission and Women’s Reservation could have been implemented in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls itself.

Then why did Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine postpone women’s reservation by tying it to census and delimitation exercise? The reason is very simple. If the Women’s Reservation Bill came into effect in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, then BJP would also have to sacrifice its men MPs to accommodate women in 33 percent of the seats reserved for them.

Only six months are left for the polls. In most Lok Sabha constituencies, MPs have already begun preparations to contest the 2024 polls and most of them are men. They would have detested letting go of their bastion overnight! Currently out of 303 MPs of BJP, only 34 are women.

In 2019, BJP contested 437 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats. There were only 53 women candidates in those 437 seats. So how is it possible for BJP to suddenly sideline its male leaders and field 33% women candidates? Why only BJP, it is not possible for any party.

Therefore, for organizational exigencies, it is not possible to implement the Women’s Reservation Bill before the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. BJP leaders argue that women will vote for them more after the passage of the Women’s Reservation Bill. But now that the Bill will come into effect much later (around 2029), why will more and more women vote for BJP?

The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine knows very well women are not so gullible. If they were really interested in women empowerment, they would have introduced the Women’s Reservation Bill much earlier.

So why was a special session of Parliament called suddenly? There is only one reason. That is to keep Narendra Modi’s image intact by deflecting the opposition’s attention from Adani case. In early September, the international press raised questions about Adani Group’s share price rigging, siphoning of money overseas and repatriation of the same through roundabout methods.

BJP had no problem with that. But foreign newspapers identified Adani as `Narendra Modi’s bosom friend’ and even published photos of the two together. To undo the damage, BJP got into action. First it floated ‘one state, one vote’ slogan. This gave rise to the speculation that along with Lok Sabha 2024 polls, all state assemblies too would have simultaneous elections! In reality nothing like that happened.

After that suddenly the Special Session of the parliament was called. There was a lot of buzz about what new surprise the Modi government would spring. In the end, the women’s reservation bill came out of the BJP bag. What was the big need for so much secrecy? By all this drama, BJP got what it wanted – the spotlight shifted from the Adani-Modi bonhomie to Women’s Reservation Bill and Modi’s image remained intact. That is the only capital BJP has now – Brand Narendra Modi.

By passing the Women’s Reservation Bill, Modi shed ‘Adani’s friend’ image and emerged as a ‘Messiah’ for women. He knows there will be many twists and turns before the bill is implemented, if at all! By that time he will be gone going by his own rule of retirement from formal politics on attaining 75 years of age.